When the Houston Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to the Cardinals for David Johnson and a second-round pick + 2021 fourth-round pick, my initial reaction was Bill O’Brien has lost his mind. I consider Hopkins one of the three best wide receivers in the game, so I didn’t understand how this made the Texans better for the upcoming season. I understand Houston did not want to break the bank in a Hopkins trade, but if that was the case, their best move would have probably been to sit pat and see how things played out.
So, what’s in store for Hopkins? He joins a fun and exciting Air Raid offense with the Cardinals, but will have to learn to form a new connection with Kyler Murray. And while Arizona will be exciting to watch, I see Hopkins fantasy value taking a hit, as the Cardinals will spread the ball out more than the Texans did.
I also wondered about the impact of the trade from a online gambling perspective. How much is Nuk worth toward the point spread?
What Oddsmakers Say About Hopkins Trade
We all know how valuable Hopkins is on the field, but you might be surprised by how oddsmakers perceive his value when making their weekly lines.
Every NFL player is given a value toward the actual weekly point spread, although not many non-quarterbacks are valued enough to affect a line. Positional players generally affect only the juice or the vig — a charge taken on bets by bookmakers.
To find out how the Hopkins trade impacts the point spread and the Cards odds, Sports Intel turned to BetOnline’s head oddsmaker, Dave Mason:
Vik Chokshi (VC): Is Hopkins the most valuable WR in regards to the point spread per game? Who are the other top-2 and what are all three of their values?
Dave Mason (DM): He is lumped in there with Michael Thomas and Julio Jones. Each WR has the same impact on the spread. About a half point, if that. Or more like 5-10 cents on the juice.
VC: How did trading for Hopkins change the Cards’ season win totals?
DM: The season win total on the Cardinals jumped from 6.5 to 7.5. Also, the Over has more bets on it than any on Win total.
VC: What were their Super Bowl odds before and what are they now?
DM: Arizona’s SB odds Improved from 66-1 to 50-1.
So, while Hopkins is going to have a big impact on the field for the Cardinals, his true value in the oddsmakers’ eyes is not as high as casual fans might think. Just another example of public perception vs. the odds.