We’re already seeing games postponed due to COVID-19 outbreaks, but we still have a pair of dynamite MLB matchups on Tuesday July 28 to bang the books, as we have a look at our picks and parlays.
MLB Picks & Parlays July 28
Dodgers (Walker Buehler) vs. Astros (Framber Valdez)
The marquee game on Tuesday’s slate is a rematch of the 2018 world series between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers sputtered out of the gate, losing one of two games to the heinous Giants in their opening homestand. The Astros took care of business against the lowly Mariners, taking three of four, and are ready to hit their home turf for the first time.
These are among the best teams Major League Baseball has to offer and can be explosive at the plate any given day.
The Dodgers will hope that Walker Buehler can try to stifle an Astros offense off to a hot start. He has the best shot of any arm on the current roster of doing so, especially with Kershaw on the shelf out of the gate. Buehler really needs to step into his role as the future number one in LA and this first start against the reigning champs is a perfect place to start.
Buehler has a lot of straight nasty stuff in his arsenal with a triple-digit fastball to boot. His fastball and slider are a deadly combination which many offenses find hard to deal with.
The Astros however, are no just any offense.
In their first four games, Houston is averaging seven runs per game. What is even more impressive about this is their best hitters are struggling. George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve have yet to get into the grove, and yet the offense is flourishing.
Houston will need all the runs they can scrape together with Framber Valdez on the hill.
Valdez relies heavily on the sinkerball despite the opposition hitting .317 off his sinker in 2019. He can fall back on his truly dirty curveball. But the Dodgers do well against the breaking ball and could send Valdez to the showers early.
The OVER as of Monday night is 9 (+100) and I think this is a golden opportunity to jump on a pair of lethal offenses.
This pick for July 28 is not a knock on Buehler at all and his MLB performancesm but the Astros can score on anyone and I think their big bats get up for this matchup. Likewise, the Dodgers bats need a spark and I like Valdez to play that role.
Best Bet: OVER 9 (+100)
Rockies (Antonio Senzatela) vs. Athletics (Daniel Mengden)
The Colorado Rockies are high on a lot of people’s lists of teams to overperform in 2020.
So far, Colorado has lived up to the hype with a strong opening series against Texas. Despite dropping their opener by one run, they snapped back and took game two and three from the Rangers.
Perhaps the biggest shock of this opening series was the Rockies pitching staff.
The Rockies allowed just five runs on 16 hits in three games against the Rangers. The success of their starters has kept their bullpen usage low with just 9.2 innings of work. They’ve given up just a single run in those innings and that is a very strong sign in this shortened season.
Senzatela did struggle a lot last season but he is young and showed a ton of upside amidst the flames. I love him to bounce back in a big way this season and am willing to bank on his 2019 issues as a fluke.
Senzatela will be tasked with shutting down an Athletics offense that was impressive in their opening series against the Angels.
The A’s scored 17 runs on 20 hits in the four games series but five of those came off a dumpster fire of a return from Ohtani.
Oakland will hope Daniel Mengden can keep runs off the board in his first start of 2019. He has an impressive repertoire of pitches, but his sinker and slider are his bread and butter. His fastball was ineffective last year and really needs to lean on his breaking balls if he hopes to turn things around. This is especially true for the meat of the Rockies’ order who feasted on fastballs last year.
The total for this game is currently 10 and I think the offenses get it done in our second game of the night.
I do really like Senzatela to bounce back this year, but I need a show-me game before I’m willing to bet on him. He ended the 2019 season with a ghastly 6.71 ERA and might not have shaken that disaster off yet.
Likewise, I need to see a game from Mengden where he doesn’t try to force the fastball. If he does this, the Rockies might hit the over by themselves. With guys like Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, and Charlie Blackmon in the lineup. No fastball will go unpunished.
With this in mind, I feel good about this MLB game going easily into the double digits for our second pick on July 28 and cashing our second OVER of the night.
Best Bet: OVER 10 (-105)
That’s it for our MLB picks and parlays for July 28, good luck ya’ll.