With Super Bowl LIV on everyone’s minds (if it’s not, it should be), there has been a lot of talk about line bets, props bets and even goofy bets (J-Lo’s butt cleavage bet gets the award this year) and we thought we would learn how they are created. However, have you ever wondered about how the lines are created? They’re not simply pulled out of thin air – there’s a little bit of science, a little bit of analysis and a little bit of educated guesswork that goes into their creation.
Lets Learn About Super Bowl Props
CBS Sports took an inside peak at William Hill’s sports gambling operations ahead of the NFL Championship game and shared what it learned from the two men behind the scenes at the company, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich and assistant director of trading Adam Pullen.
One of the first NFL prop bets the two dove into focused on the number of receptions players with the San Francisco 49ers will make during the game. Explains Bogdanovich, “This is usually something that’s either 6.5 or 7.5. Looking at [the 49ers’] last two playoff games, they’ve had four and five — which is so low that it’s not even funny. It’s insanely low.”
He adds, “We’ll knock off the people who can make a catch. Emmanuel Sanders, we can count as one. Deebo Samuel can count as two. George Kittle is three. Those three will get one for sure. That brings us to, is Raheem Mostert going to get one? Is Tevin Coleman even going to play? Is Matt Breida going to get one? Kyle Juszczyk can catch the ball. Is he going to get one? Kendrick Bourne? It’s scary that it’s that low. We got a whole number, so it’s either going to be 5.5 or 6.5.”
After Pullen provided his take, believing that seven would be too much, they settle on 5.5 over 50 points. This way, there’s room for extra juice and more chances for participation on the part of gamblers. Bogdanovich sets the odds firmly and explains, “We’re going to use [-5.5] over $2.00, which means the under is +175.”
That was the process for just the first prop bet the pair had established for the upcoming Super Bowl; however, it certainly wasn’t the last. In total, around 400 more bets would be created once the final two teams for the big game were known and, fortunately for Bogdanovich and Pullen, each one only takes around 90 seconds.
William Hill has now published its final US Super Bowl Props Sheet after the two worked tirelessly to put everything in place. It’s available at the sportsbook’s operations in Delaware, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island and West Virginia, as well as its mobile app, where available.
Bogdanovich adds, “There’s no question that the higher the total, the more action there is in the prop bets. People love action. The higher the total, the higher the action. They’re inclined to bet ‘yes’ and ‘over,’ so with the higher total, they’re all like, ‘Are you kidding me? Forty-three yards? That’s supposed to be 60.’ They’ll bet over blindly. That’s their mindset.”
Prop bets have been around for a while, but have gained a lot more attention since states began legalizing sports gambling. This year, the number is expected to be much higher, and will most likely blow away the mid-nine-figure amount seen by sports books last year.
Not everything is set in stone, either. Lines can, and will, move as the game approaches. The way gamblers bet online and other factors will have oddsmakers constantly evaluating the numbers and ensuring that they stay in line with their goals. Many of the non-game-related prop bets won’t change much, but in-game Super Bowl props bets, such as the team to score first or the player to pick up the first rushing touchdown, will see a little movement. It’s all part of the fun of placing wagers on the game.