Now that most of the big free agents have changed teams and the NFL Draft is over, we have a pretty good idea of what rosters are going to look like. After taking into account rosters, SOS, point differential, injuries, new QBs and coaches, I have a better feel for the AFC West over under bets that I like and don’t like for the upcoming season.
Of course now that the draft is over, oddsmakers have also done the same, and adjusted some of their season totals. Here are the most updated NFL odds totals, but make sure you shop around:
2020 NFL Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens: 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
New Orleans Saints: 10.5
San Francisco 49ers: 10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5
Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5
Seattle Seahawks: 9.5
Buffalo Bills: 9
Green Bay Packers: 9
Indianapolis Colts: 9
New England Patriots: 9
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9
Chicago Bears: 8.5
Cleveland Browns: 8.5
Los Angeles Rams: 8.5
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
Tennessee Titans: 8.5
Houston Texans: 8
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
Denver Broncos: 7.5
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5
Arizona Cardinals: 7
Detroit Lions: 6.5
New York Giants: 6.5
New York Jets: 6.5
Miami Dolphins: 6
Carolina Panthers: 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5
Washington Redskins: 5
Buckle up, because I am going to start giving you my division by division breakdown on how I see these totals playing out this season. Up today, the AFC West.
AFC West Over Under Bets 2020
Kansas City Chiefs over 11.5 wins
The Chiefs are a machine, and what is scary is that they might’ve even gotten better this offseason. Via the draft and free agency, they picked up some immediate contributors. I love the RB they drafted in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he fits that system perfectly. Heck, he might be a guy you want to throw some money down on for offensive ROY.
Their schedule is also not as bad as I thought it was going to be. The only way I see this team slowing down is if injuries hit them hard. As long as Patrick Mahomes can stay healthy, the Chiefs should remain one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this upcoming season.
12 is a very lofty number, but I think KC gets their next season. They have a great coach, who should have them prepared and hungry once again. Their tough road games are at Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. If they can go 2-2, they should be able to get to the number.
Again, as long as they remain healthy, lookout.
Denver Broncos over 7.5 wins
Is Drew Lock the QB of the future for the Broncos? Over his last five games of the season, he did go 4-1 with 7 TDS and 3 INTs. If he can play like he did during that stretch, this team might be in for a solid season.
They signed Melvin Gordon to help their run game and they have some weapons at the WR and TE positions that should help Lock sustain his late season success.
My biggest issues are with their schedule. But, I love Vic Fangio, and I don’t see this defense regressing next season. I know they lost Chris Harris and Von Miller is getting up there in age, but tthey picked up A.J. Bouye and Bradley Chubb should be back to wreck teams this upcoming season.
As long as Drew Lock can play like he did during that home stretch of last season, the offense is dangerous, their defense is loaded and they will be a well-coached and prepared football team. Give me the over.
Los Angeles Chargers over/ under 7.5 wins
The Chargers big question mark is their QB position. Los Angeles has Tyrod Taylor currently listed as the starter and they also drafted QB Justin Herbert.
Their entire offensive unit will be interesting to watch, as they do have some weapons on that side of the football. That is if Taylor can assimilate into a new offense without possibly a traditional training camp due to the coronavirus.
Defensively, they should be solid, especially with a healthy Derwin James. They also picked up Chris Harris, which should make their secondary even more dangerous.
The schedule, while really tough at the beginning, gets easier after five games. If they can win some games in the middle part of the schedule, they should come close to the number here. This bet ultimately might come down to their last game of the season, which is against the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are gunning for a playoff spot or homefield advantage, say bye, bye. But, if the Chiefs dominate the regular season and have a bye locked up, this tough game might become one of their easiest of the season, which might put them over the number.
I’m personally staying away from this bet, because I don’t see an edge either way.
Las Vegas Raiders under 7.5 wins
The Raiders have been trending up since John Gruden took over. After going 4-12 in his first season, he revamped the roster to his liking and finished with a 7-9 record last season.
But, a few questions still remain, the main one being are they still committed to Derek Carr?
A few other things also worry me about betting the over here. First, the WR spot. I’m not sold on their Nelson Agholor signing and their draft pick Ruggs, while fast, will need some time to develop. I don’t see a true WR1 on this roster and they are very thin at the position as is.
Second, the Raiders schedule. It is absolutely brutal, as my systems show them as having the 2nd hardest schedule in all of football this upcoming season.
Third, kind of goes hand in hand with the schedule, and that is their defense. While they were able to put up points last season, their defense gave up the most points in the AFC West last season. Now they face the Chiefs two times, the Ravens and teams like the Packers, Colts, Steelers and Browns, to name a few.
I didn’t love their free agent pickups on the defensive side of the football. I see them having similar issues on that side of the ball, like last season, and why I will be taking the under in this spot.
So, that’s it for our picks for the AFC West over under bets for 2020/21, good luck!