Now that most of the big free agents have changed teams and the NFL Draft is over, we have a pretty good idea of what rosters are going to look like. After taking into account rosters, SOS, point differential, injuries, new QBs and coaches, I have a better feel for the AFC East over under bets that I like and don’t like for the upcoming season.

Of course now that the draft is over, oddsmakers have also done the same, and adjusted some of their season totals. Here are the most updated totals for your NFL betting, but make sure you shop around:

2020 NFL Win Totals

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5

New Orleans Saints: 10.5

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5

Buffalo Bills: 9

Green Bay Packers: 9

Indianapolis Colts: 9

New England Patriots: 9

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9

Chicago Bears: 8.5

Cleveland Browns: 8.5

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5

Tennessee Titans: 8.5

Houston Texans: 8

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5

Denver Broncos: 7.5

Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5

Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5

Arizona Cardinals: 7

Detroit Lions: 6.5

New York Giants: 6.5

New York Jets: 6.5

Miami Dolphins: 6

Carolina Panthers: 5.5

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5

Washington Redskins: 5

Buckle up, because I am going to start giving you my division by division breakdown on how I see these totals playing out this season. Up today, the AFC East.

AFC East Over Under Picks

Buffalo Bills over 9 Wins

Now that Tom Brady has left New England, can the Bills can take advantage? The Bills had a solid off-season, as they added a big-time WR in Stefon Diggs. And, while their defense was already loaded, they added Mario Addison and A.J Klein, and re-signed Jordan Poyer.

Head Coach Sean McDermott has done a great job since getting to Buffalo and always seems to have his team prepared every game. He understands that they need to rely on their defense to win. Looking at the roster and opponents in the division, this is theirs to win. Their RB Devin Singletary looked good and they drafted Zach Moss to complement him. In the end, the real key to winning this over bet will be the play of QB Josh Allen. After looking at everything during the offseason and schedule, if Allen can progress and limit turnovers, they can win 10-plus games. Bonus is they get the ‘Fins in week 17, that should put them over 9 if they are healthy still.

Miami Dolphins under 6 Wins

The team that was “Tanking for Tua,” has slowly built up a solid squad. They got their guy in Tua and someone to protect him in the 1st round in Austin Jackson. Overall, they had a solid draft and added key pieces on defense in free agency with the additions of CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson, to name a few.

With a team so heavily reliant on their rookies, I see them coming out of the gates slow. Even if they want Tua to a start, he is not going to get enough reps to come in and start right away. While the future is bright, I don’t see it happening just yet. The three other teams in their division are still better than them and I don’t see them climbing the NFL standings this year.

New England Patriots over/ under 9 Wins

Ruling out a team that is coached by Bill Belichick, is literally the definition of gambling. But, I don’t think we can understate the loss of a guy like Tom Brady. He was a leader on and off the field. New England also lacks weapons on the offensive side of the football. On top of that, they lost many key defensive players to free agency. QB Jarrett Stidham is listed as their starter, but let’s see if that is still the case later in the season. The Belichick aka Hoodie is the master, but I just don’t see them getting to 10 wins.

The number is sharp to me, and I don’t see value in betting either way. Sitting the Patriots out this year, too many variables.

New York Jets under 6.5 Wins

The Jets’ biggest problem is still their coaching staff, led by Adam Gase. From coaching to player development, he has been terrible in New York. They have some pieces in QB Sam Darnold and RB Le’Veon Bell, but Gase’s offense doesn’t even utilize Bell correctly. I’d give the guy 20-plus touches a game. They are also lacking a big-time WR1, so I don’t know how they will put up points against teams like the Bills or the Patriots.

Defensively, the return of LB C.J Mosely should make a huge difference, but their secondary is still suspect. I think this number is right around where they will end up but because their schedule is tough, I will go with the under.

So, that’s it for our AFC East over under picks for this season, check back again for another divisional breakdown.