I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights my favorite daily picks on the sports slate, so let’s have a look at the action for March 4.
Yesterday I finished the day 1-2. But, looking back on it, I still liked my plays, as both my l’s came on some heartbreakers.
Anyways, while everyday is a new opportunity and I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day. This will help us get better as we move forward. So, here goes:
– Wisconsin-Milwaukee +6 (loss) – From up the whole game to losing on a late free throw, this one hurt. That is gambling for you.
– Nets-Celtics under 220 (loss) – This was looking great until the fourth quarter. That is when all hell broke loose, with 85 total points, including the Nets scoring 51 points by themselves.
– Lakers -12 (won) – This came down to the last minute, but LAL was in cruise control for most of the game. Will take the win.
Now, onto today’s card. We have some great college basketball matchups and an eight-game NBA betting slate.
We did the research for you so, so here are our three favorite bets for today:
Vik’s Picks March 4
LSU at Arkansas -2.5
If you read my daily write-ups, you know that I usually like to target bigger matchups between ranked teams with NCAAB betting. But, here is a game that really stuck out to me on the card today, so had to pull the trigger.
LSU just beat Arkansas in January, so there is definitely some recency bias when it comes to public betting on this game Currently, 60% of the public bets are coming in on LSU.
I like Ark in this match up, because they are a desperate team. There is still an outside chance they can get an at-large bid for the tournament, so you know they will be all-in tonight. The last time these two teams met, Arkansas was actually up 11-points in the first half. Of course they blew that lead, but still something to note as they matchup well against LSU. LSU is very bad at defending the 3-ball, so if Arkansas can hit some 3’s, they should be able to pull away in this one.
LSU has also been inconsistent away from home this season, going just 5-5, whereas Arkansas has been great home, boasting a 14-4 record there.
Pelicans +6 at Mavericks
I know this is a back-to-back for the Pelicans, but I love them in this spot tonight. Since NOLA lost to the struggling TWolves last night, that and the B2B, the public is riding with Dallas tonight at a 60% clip. But, the line has come down from Mavs -6.5 to -6, indicating reverse line movement on the Pelicans, so some sharp money is backing them.
I like NOLA because of the matchups tonight. While Luka is one of my favorite playes in the league, Jrue should be able to disrupt his game tonight. Also, Zion should absolutely feast against KP tonight, which is why I think the Pelicans are a live dog tonight.
New Orleans has also done well against teams with bad defenses, and Dallas fits that tab. They are also desperate for a win since they are trying to get into the playoffs, so look for a much better effort tonight from them after last night’s debacle.
Thunder-Pistons under 211
With Derrick Rose out tonight, the Pistons offense is going to look completely different. The Pistons are missing Brandon Knight and a bunch of other guys as well, but Rose is the main cog for that offense. When Rose is out, naturally the Pistons offensive numbers have taken a hit. They also play at a much slower rate as well.
The Thunder have also played well against sub-.500 teams, but they are on a back-to-back tonight. I lean the Thunder overall, but that is a lot of points to lay on the road on a b2b, so I will hit the under instead.
I see both teams playing at a slower pace tonight and this being a grind it out kind of game. The public is on the over, but the total has come down from an opening line of 213.
Well, that is all folks for my March 4 picks. Good luck on today’s wagers!