Another week brings us a fresh slate of MLB games to wager on, and Matt has Monday Aug 24’s best picks for your betting pleasure.
MLB Daily Picks Aug 24, 2020
Reds (Trevor Bauer | 3-0, 0.68) vs. Brewers | Brett Anderson (1-2, 3.71)
The Brewers got rocked by the bottom-feeding Pirates over the weekend and will be looking to bounce back in a big way against the Reds tonight.
Meanwhile, the Reds are heading into thig game off a 6-2 trouncing of the Cardinals last time out. They were led by Eugenio Suarez and a first-inning two-run shot that proved all the runs needed to win this one.
Cincinnati will have the luxury of sending Trevor Bauer to the hill tonight. Bauer has always been a fringe ace in my opinion but this season he’s really turned it on in Cincy. Bauer is 3-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 41 strikeouts on the year.
Bauer went a full seven innings in his last start, against the Royals, allowing just a single hit and fanning nine. While his ground ball rate isn’t spectacular, Bauer is striking out guys at a clip of 14.01 per nine innings and walking just 2.39.
Sure, Bauer won’t maintain these numbers all year, but at 29 years old, he might have a breakout year in 2020. His 1.96 FUP and average exit velocity of 86.7MPH are keeping me optimistic that when that regression comes, it won’t be too rough on him or his numbers.
The Brewers will look to counter with Brett Anderson and grab a much-needed win. Anderson is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA and a mere 14 K’s on the season. While his ERA is ok, Anderson’s FIP mark of 4.29 raises some eyebrows and is cause for concern. Anderson is known for his ground ball rate and strikeouts. This year, however, he’s not sitting guys down at his normal rate. Just 7.41 K’s per nine and 1.06 HR’s suggest that a dumpster fire game is on the horizon. I’m not suggesting that it will be tonight, but regression is coming.
Stamina is another cause for concern with Anderson as the righty has gone just 4 ⅓ innings or less in three of his four starts this year. The other saw him manage to claw his way into the sixth inning against the Twins.
Bauer is the real focus of my pick today and I expect his Cy Young caliber season to continue here.
All of Bauers wins have come on the road this year and the Reds have won his previous three trips to the mound. Batters are hitting a paltry 0.92 against him on the road with right-handers posting an awful .049 BAA right now. The Brewers have a good mix of righties and lefties, but it shouldn’t matter much with lefties slashing just .133 against him in 2020.
I’m looking for the Reds to slap enough singles against Anderson that they can muster up enough support to earn Bauer his fourth MLB win in a row, so that’s our first pick for Aug 24.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds -134
Athletics (Jesus Luzardo | 2-0, 3.00) vs. Rangers (Lance Lynn | 3-0, 1.37)
The Athletics head to Texas for a Monday night meeting against the Rangers at Globe Life Field.
Oakland is looking to get back in the win column after winning four of their last five and eight of their last 11 games overall. They lead the AL West by 4.5 games over the Astros and poised for a run at the crown.
Meanwhile, the Rangers are on an eight-game losing streak and look like a lost team out there. They have amassed just six runs in their last three games, including a pair of one-run games against the Mariners over the weekend.
Texas is hoping that Lance Lynn can spin another stellar game and help to avoid an embarrassing ninth loss in a row.
Lynn is a perfect 3-0 on the year with a 1.37 ERA and 42 K’s. His career numbers against the A’s have his record at 2-1 with a less than impressive 4.67 ERA.
Lynn has really been the highlight of this awful pitching staff and they need a good start out of him. His WAR of 1.18 is the third most amongst starting pitchers and ranks second in IP’s (39.1), third in BAA (.146), and fourth in ERA (1.37). His WHIP is also under 1.00 in what has proven to be an eye-opening start for the 33-year-old.
He is coming off back to back starts of at least seven innings, allowing just two runs and zero walks.
While I think Lynn handles this lineup with relative ease, I don’t have a whole lot of faith in the rest of this team. I think there is value taking Texas at plus money behind Lynn’s arm but I feel more confident that this game lacks runs on both sides.
Take Texas’ hitting issues and add them to the fact that the under has hit in Lynn’s last three starts and my confidence in the total grows. This will be Lynn’s second time facing the A’s and his last start was a 6 ⅓ inning one-run gem of a start.
This being a series opener, there is also a higher chance for a low scoring game. Pray for pitching guys cuz we’re going under.
Best Bet: Under 8 +100
That’s all for our MLB picks and parlays on Aug 24. Good luck everyone!