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ALCS Almost a Wrap

We are very close to saying goodbye to the 2021 MLB season as the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros will fight for one of two tickets to the World Series. The Houston Astros want to cleanse their name after the 2017 scandal, and they will get their chance in game six if they can get one more victory to move on to the World Series.

Do or Don’t Do, There is No Try

After crushing the Boston Red Sox 9-1 with impeccable work from starter Framber Valdez, the Dominican pitcher who was inspired at Fenway Park, threw eight complete innings, in which he allowed only three hits. Yordan Álvarez was in charge of opening the board in the second inning with a blow that went right by the green monster with Chris Sale in front of him. It wasn’t until the sixth inning that things got out of control for the Red Sox.

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The Astros came out swinging hard, finding their zone to tack on an additional five runs. One more run in the seventh and, last but not least, two more in the ninth, sentenced the crash against a Boston offense that never deciphered Valdez’s pitches, except Devers who hit one with a home run. Now the series travels to Houston, where the Astros are just looking for one more win that will put them back in the Fall Classic.

Red Sox Need Eovaldi to Dig In

The Red Sox will have Nathan Eovaldi on the mound in what is inarguably the most important game of the entire MLB season for the team. Eovaldi has pitched in two of the five games of this series, ending with a 1-1 record while pitching in six total innings and allowing seven runs on seven hits. He has also kept five off the bases, while walking three. If Eovaldi gives up any room tonight, Boston will need to quickly rotate and bring in someone else from the bullpen.

Of course, just like in years past, the Astros are once again being accused of cheating. Whether these are the ramblings of some disgruntled baseball fans or provable accusations remains to be seen. However, there is a question as to why Astros GM Dusty Baker would be wearing a Fitbit on the field. The device is one that MLB has specifically banned from games. The Red Sox found themselves on the receiving end of MLB’s rod in 2017 after players were found to have worn Apple smartwatches during a game.

Odds Stack Up for an Over

The oddsmakers opened up this line Houston Astros -110 on the money and an Over/Under at 8.5. The total was up a half a point to nine, and most books have the line from -115 to -120 in favor of the Astros.

Notable trends for the Red Sox:

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The Over is 7-0 in Red Sox’s last seven after allowing five runs or more in their previous game and  6-0 in Red Sox’s last six when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Over has hit five of five when Boston was an underdog and Eovaldi starts. It has also held in the Red Sox’s last nine games on the grass and is 5-0 in the last five when Eovaldi starts against a team with a winning record.

Notable trends for the Astros:

The Over is 4-0 in Garcia’s last four starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, and 4-0 in Garcia’s last four starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. It is also 4-0 in Garcia’s last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game, and 4-0 in the Astros’ last four games as a favorite.

Regardless of the outcome, the Over can be expected to hit tonight. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will have enough juice to win and force a Game 7, so backing the Astros on the moneyline is a good play.

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Erik is a writer and a sports nut who has had the good fortune to be able to experience a wide variety of world sports action up close and personal. He enjoys staying on top of the changing world of athletics and capitalizing on his writing skills to offer a unique take on what's going on in the ever-changing athletics ecosystem.

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