Tuesday’s MLB betting slate for Aug 18 is full of value and Matt has a pair of plus money picks to pad your pockets.
MLB Daily Picks Aug 18, 2020
Mariners (Marco Gonzales | 2-2, 3.97) vs. Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin | 0-0, 0.00)
Tuesday brings an end to a quick two-game series between the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers in LA. Seattle lost game one 11-9 and fell to 7-17 on the season and have now lost six games in a row.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers improved to 17-7 with last night’s win and have extended their win streak to six games and now lead the NL West standings by two games over the Rockies.
The Mariners offense finally woke up last night after scoring just four runs in their previous three games.
Kyle Lewis leads the squad with a .325 average with four long balls and 27 hits. Kyle Seager leads the team in RBIs (19) and is hitting .310 on the year. The pair combined for six hits, four runs, and four RBIs last night and need to stay hot if the Mariners hope to snap out of their funk tonight.
The job of silencing Seager and Lewis falls in the lap of Tony Gonsolin. He has thrown four innings in two starts and has yet to give up a run. His 8 ⅔ scoreless innings are impressive but a regression will come eventually.
Gonsolin will be backed up by a potent offense led by Mookie Betts who is hitting .317 on the year and swatted his ninth home run of the season in Monday’s victory.
The Dodgers offense now ranks third in the league in run-scoring and continues to light up pitching on a near-nightly basis.
LA has cashed the OVER four times and plated double-digits twice during their five-game win streak.
Considering the Mariners pitching, I see another big night for this offense.
Meanwhile, the Mariners’ struggles on the mound have led to an equal 4-5 record on the OVER in their last five games despite a shaky offense.
I think LA wins this game easily on Aug 18, so an RL play is tempting but the OVER can be had at plus money and I just can’t ignore that value after last night’s 20 run game, so is an easy pick for me.
Best Bet: OVER 9.5 runs (+105)
Brewers (Corbin Burnes | 0-0, 3.38) vs. Twins (Kenta Maeda | 3-0, 2.66)
The second of our picks for Aug 18 sees the Minnesota Twins head into this MLB game hot on the heels of taking three of four games against the Royals. This was a nice bounce-back effort after losing three straight to this same team a couple of weeks back.
The Twins have a great shot to grow their momentum against the Brewers with Kenta Maeda on the hill. Maeda has a very attractive 3-0 record and 2.66 ERA in 23⅔ innings pitched. He’s allowed just two home runs and four walks to go with 21 strikeouts and a near 50% ground ball rate. Batters are hitting just .155 against him and have allowed just one hit at home in 2020.
Minnesota on a whole has been fantastic at home with a 10-2 record at Target Field. They lost just once the last series against the Royals and once back in July against the Indians.
Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes will be making a spot start after Eric Lauer was optioned to Minnesota’s alternate training site.
Burnes has an 8-5 record in 66 total appearances in his career, including just five starts. His last start was a 3 ⅓ inning outing against the Cubs in which he struck out six and allowed a run on two hits.
Burnes does get strikeouts but also gives up a ton of free passes and a frightening number of fly balls. His 24 strikeouts on the year are a bit less impressive when you take into account his 11 walks and 21 fly balls to just eight ground balls.
I think that Burnes hangs enough bad pitches over the plate against this offense that the Twins jump on him hard.
I don’t hate a F5 play on Minnesota but the value is on the run line here. In my opinion, these odds are a little off based on the Brewer’s recent three-game win streak. But, Minnesota is still just a .500 team with a volatile spot starter on the hill. So take advantage and the value on the home team.
Best Bet: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+120)
That’s it for me picks in the MLB on Aug 18, they are plus money, but seem nailed on to me.