I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights my favorite daily picks on the sports slate. Tuesday, I finished 1-2. While every day is a new opportunity and I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day. This will help us get better as we move forward. So, here goes:
– I bet UMASS +3 (won)
– New Mexico +2 (loss). New Mexico hung around, but could never get over the hump
– LSU 2 (loss). Kentucky was on fire from 3-point land, hitting 9 3’s on 50% shooting. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.
Now, onto today’s card. The NBA is still on break until Thursday, but college basketball is in full force now, as is NHL, so let’s look at some picks.
Don’t worry about researching the card, because we’ve done the work for you.
Duke at NC State +7 and over 151
This is a good situational spot for NC State, as they are motivated for a big win for their resume.
NC has lost five in a row, while Duke has been on fire as of late, winners of 7 straight. They are also a strong 7-1 on the road this season, which of course has skewed the public’s perception for this game. The public is hitting Duke at a 70% clip for this matchup. And, with it being a late tip, look for that number to go up near game time.
But, the sharps definitely took an early stand on this game, pushing the line down from NC State +8 in some books to 7/ 6.5 in most books right now. This indicated reverse line movement on NC State. I would pull the trigger soon if you like the Wolf Pack, as I can see this line going to 6 by game time.
Duke thrives off creating turnovers and scoring off of them, but NC State does not turnover the rock at a high rate. In fact, they are one of the best in the nation, with the 51st lowest turnover rate via Ken Pom.
This is also an ESPN game, so you know the home crowd will be rocking. While I think Duke pulls this one out at the end, this line is inflated, so I will take the points.
When it comes to the total, it has gone up to 151 in most books from 150. I think it will go up to 152 by game time, so try to grab it now.
NC State has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating of 109.4, ranked 47th via Ken Pom. Duke plays at an even faster pace, coming in ranked 8th, with a rating of 116.1. The pace of this game will be up and down, which is why I am loving the over as well as NC State + the points.
Rangers at Blackhawks moneyline (-125)
I don’t bet the NHL much, but like the Hawks tonight for a few reasons.
First, they are rested. And, they usually do good in that spot, as the Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. They are also desperate for a win and should be motivated tonight.
I also love it when a team has a hot goalie, and the Hawks have just that tonight in Corey Crawford. The vet owns a crazy .931 SV% over his last seven games.
Also, this is a game that reeks of a fishy line. While the public is all over the Rangers, the line has actually gone up on the Hawks. The sharps have gotten involved, and there is reverse line movement on Chicago.
Well, that is all folks. Good luck on today’s wagers!