I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights my favorite daily picks on the sports slate. Yesterday I finished 2-1. While every day is a new opportunity and I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day. This will help us get better as we move forward. So, here goes:
- I bet North Carolina +4 (won)
- North Carolina-Notre Dame over 148 (won)
- St. Johns +1.5 (lost 77-74)
The NC game played out exactly as I envisioned. SJU hung around all game, but just couldn’t get over the hump. All in all, a good day.
Now, onto today’s card. The NBA is still on break until Thursday, but college basketball is in full force now, so let’s look at my favorite bets of the day.
Don’t worry about researching the card, because we’ve done the work for you.
Nevada at New Mexico +2
New Mexico has lost two games in a row and they also got stomped by Nevada earlier this season (22-point loss).
Seeing how bad NM has struggled this season has skewed the public into taking a hot Nevada team at a 60% rate. But, the sharps definitely took an early stand on this game, pushing the line down from Nev -2.5 to 2/ 1.5 in most books right now. This indicated reverse line movement on NM. I would pull the trigger soon if you like this, as I can see this line going to 1 by game time.
While New Mexico is not good at a lot of things, they get to the FT line. They rank 27th in the Ken Pom category for that. On the flip side, Nevada gives up a ton of free throws. Look for more of the same time, which will lead to a lot of scoring opportunities tonight, which will then keep them in the game.
This game will be played fast and come down to the last bucket, so I will take the points. I see NM as a live dog, which makes this even better.
Kentucky at LSU -2
Here is a game that reeks of a fishy line. You have the No. 10 team in the country with Kentucky against an unranked team, yet LSU is favored. UK has also won four games in a row, while LSU has lost three of its last four. Of course the public is eating it up, but as I always say, sometimes “too easy” is never that easy when it comes to gambling. If it was, we’d all be rich and retired.
The public is on UK, and understandably so. But, LSU has been close to unbeatable at home this season, posting an 13-1 record at home. They are also a strong rebounding team, ranked 13th in Offensive Rebounding % via Ken Pom. That should keep them hanging around all game long.
Kentucky also does not shoot the ball well, which is what it usually takes to beat LSU. Just another reason I like the Tigers tonight to take care of business.
When it comes to the Joes vs. the Pros, it looks like the public is on UK (as stated above), while the money is on LSU. The line is going up in some books, indicating some small reverse line movement on the Tigers.
The 2-point line does scare me a little bit, as a moneyline wager would be better, but I hate laying that much juice. I’ll lay the 2. Make sure you shop around, as this line will go up to around 3 near game time.
Lastly, this is an ESPN game, so you know the home crowd will be rowdy. Every little thing counts, so hopefully the LSU fans bring it tonight.
St. Louis at UMASS +3
Because SLU beat UMass earlier this season, the public is on St. Louis at a 65% clip. But, sharp money has come in on Mass, pushing this line down to 3 in most books now and indicating reverse line movement.
A key to keep an eye on us turnovers. SLU turns over the rock and UMass is good at causing turnovers. At home and with revenge on the mind, these are the kind of little matchup quirks I like to identify to try to get us an edge on a game.
The Minutemen also get a ton of blocks per game and have rebounded the ball well as of late. Those categories, especially at home, where the crowd will give them the juice to do just those little things that help you win a little bit better. Just another couple of reasons to back them in this spot.
I have Mass winning this game straight up, so I will kindly take the points.
Well, that is all folks. Good luck on today’s wagers!