Happy Monday! While the NBA world is still recovering from a great All-Star weekend in the Chi, the college basketball slate is packed with some good games. And, don’t forget, but we are less than a month away from Selection Sunday! March Madness is around the corner (rubbing hands .GIF).
Don’t worry about researching the card, because we’ve done the work for you.
North Carolina +4 at Notre Dame and over 148
NC has had a terrible year by all accounts. They aren’t ranked, their star recruit Cole Anthony has been injured, and they keep racking up L’s after L’s to lesser known teams. But, when it comes to gambling, a lot of that goes out the door, as we look at stuff more on a game-to-game basis as opposed to a season long lens.
Both teams come into this match up on losing streaks, as NC has lost five in a row and ND has lost two in a row.
Seeing how bad Carolina has struggled this season has skewed the public into loving ND at a 65% rate. But, the sharps definitely took an early stand on this game, pushing the line down from NC +4.5/ 5 in some books to 4/ 3.5 in most books right now. This indicated reverse line movement on NC. I would pull the trigger soon if you like the Tar Heels, as I can see this line going to 3 by gametime.
While UNC is not good at a lot of things, they rebound the ball well, especially on the offensive side. They rank 20th in the country at Offensive Rebounding %. Look for more of the same time, which will lead to a lot of second chance points tonight which will then keep them in the game.
Same thing goes for the total. The perception of two struggling teams playing each other has the general public liking the under, but the total has gone up to 148/ 148.5 in most books. Another instance of reverse line movement, and another place I would try to shop around and grab the best number soon. I see this hitting possibly 149 by tip-off tonight.
ND has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating of 110.5, ranked 36th via Ken Pom. The pace of this game will be up and down, which is why I am loving the over.
This game will be played fast and come down to the last bucket, so I will take the points and the over as two of my favorite bets tonight.
Xavier at St. Johns +1.5
Here is a game that reeks of a fishy line. You have a strong Xavier team, which seems better on paper record-wise and in multiple stats, yet they are only laying 1.5? Short road favorites are always something I like to keep an eye on. Why? Because sometimes “too easy” is never that easy when it comes to gambling. If it was, we’d all be rich and retired.
The public is pounding X, and understandably so. But, St. Johns has been good at home this season, posting an 11-5 record at home. They also rarely turn over the ball and are a strong rebounding team. X gives up a lot of offensive boards, so look for SJU to score a lot on second chance points.
When it comes to the Joes vs. the Pros, it looks like the public is on Xavier (as stated above), while the money is on SJU.
I see SJU as a live dog, meaning have a chance to win straight up. Would not be surprised if SJU takes the lead early and never looks back.
Also, starting tomorrow, I will start doing previous day game recaps. Want to keep myself accountable and to talk about how the games played out. Will help us going forward. Good luck on today’s wagers!